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Bayesian preventive maintenance

Where:  TU Delft, Faculty EWI, Mekelweg 4, Lecture hall G.
When:  9th of October 2017 tot 8th of October 2017
Starttime  16:00

On Monday (09/10/2017), we have another interesting talk in our Probability and Statistics seminar series at TU Delft.
All of you are very welcome.

Paulo Serra (TU Eindhoven)

When: Monday October 9th, 16:00
Where: TU Delft, Faculty EWI, Mekelweg 4, Lecture hall G.

Bayesian preventive maintenance

Motivated by industrial practice, we model the condition of an asset using a stochastic process. We assume that as soon as the condition of the asset exceeds a predefi ned safety threshold, the asset is shut down and costly corrective reparations must ensue. The condition of the asset is regularly inspected (at pre-determined moments, with a fi xed inspection cost), and the goal is to decide based on the history of the inspections and taking into account all costs, if preventive maintenance (which is less costly) should be performed.
We consider the class of so called control limit (threshold-type) policies: maintenance is performed if a certain threshold (depending on the collected data, preventive maintenance- and corrective repair costs) is exceeded, at which point the asset is restored to a "good-as-new" condition. We work with a loss function that corresponds to the costs of each action (repair, maintenance, inspection). The model parameters are endowed with a prior, and the threshold is chosen so as to minimise the Bayesian expected loss.
The asymptotic distribution of the model parameters, of the duration of each maintenance cycle, and of the proposed threshold is also discussed.
I also present some numerical results, and address issues relating to the optimality of the approach.
This is joint work with Stella Kapodistria (Eindhoven University of Technology).

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